Post by Flash on Jul 3, 2007 16:23:48 GMT -5
Bombs aimed at the heart of democracy
* With a federal election due later this year, Australia could find itself in the same position as Britain: seen as ripe by terrorists to be sent a violent political message
* July 04, 2007
AUSTRALIA should be ready for a higher risk of terrorist attack later this year following the weekend car-bomb attacks executed or defeated in Britain, the detaining of two men in Brisbane yesterday and issuing of search warrants following advice from Scotland Yard.
Although Britain's terrorist alert was elevated to critical, Attorney-General Philip Ruddock stated on Saturday following the news from Britain that Australia's terrorism alert level would remain unchanged at medium. This was reaffirmed yesterday by Ruddock and Australian Federal Police commissioner Mick Keelty. This may have to change before the year ends.
Australian authorities have not yet made a link between the Brisbane arrests and the attacks in Britain. But the timing of events, the acknowledged British source of advice and the fact one of the Brisbane men arrested, Mohammed Haneef, was a registrar at Gold Coast Hospital in Southport, so a doctor, who had trained in India before coming to Australia from northern England, suggest a direct connection.
British authorities have said that as many as six of the eight men arrested so far in connection with the attempted attacks in London and Glasgow were doctors with links to British hospitals including in Scotland. Although the exact motive of the attacks has not been established publicly, it seems certain they were terrorist attacks calculated to send a message to new British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Attacking Glasgow's airport, a considerably lower profile though softer security target than Heathrow, reinforces the suspicion that the message was to Brown, who is a Scot, possibly to reconsider his support for the Iraq policies of his predecessor, an issue on which there is evidence of some ambivalence on his part.
Washington sources have already reported unease in the Bush administration over Brown's appointment of ministers critical of the US and the Iraq war, including Mark Malloch-Brown to a senior position at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and David Miliband as Foreign Secretary, plus John Denham, who resigned from government over the war, and Harriet Harman, Labour's new deputy leader.
British counter-terrorist agencies were reported yesterday as having warned the British Government in April of a renewed terrorist campaign to coincide with the handover of prime ministerial power to Brown by Tony Blair.
Terrorists read the political news, too. They may not be planning to vote but that does not mean they do not hope to influence policies, even elections, using violence rather than the ballot box.
Political violence, which includes terrorism, is rarely random. Political violence is part of political communication including bargaining. The aim of the violence is to influence the other parties in the process into accepting a certain position.
Terrorism, like war, is 19th-century Prussian military thinker Karl von Clausewitz's "continuation of politics by other means".
Take the Tet Offensive by the National Liberation Front in Vietnam in February 1968. It was more a political message to the American people and politicians than a military campaign. It succeeded brilliantly.
US president Lyndon B. Johnson announced he would not seek re-election and indicated a new willingness to seek a negotiated settlement in Vietnam. His push for a halt to the bombing of North Vietnam was to facilitate the election of Democrat Hubert Humphrey, something Hanoi also wanted to see realised.
When Republican Richard Nixon defeated the "peace candidate" Humphrey in the November election, he was confronted with a second military offensive, in February 1969, less than a month after taking office, to send the message he should continue Johnson's policies and disengage from Vietnam.
With a federal election due later this year, Australia could find itself in the same position as Britain does now, seen as ripe by terrorists to be sent a violent message.
Were Kevin Rudd to win, terrorists could be keen to send a message to the new leader of another member of the coalition of the willing to rethink Australia's policies in Iraq and Afghanistan if not elsewhere as well.
Rudd has already indicated he would withdraw all Australian combat troops from Iraq if elected.
A punishing terrorist attack in Australia linked to the Iraq commitment before the election might strengthen his commitment.
Indeed, more worryingly, terrorists may calculate the political message may be stronger if delivered against our troops in Iraq or Afghanistan.
A likely Rudd victory may not be the only grounds for fearing such an attack. The likelihood that Prime Minister John Howard may make a pre-election decision on beginning a graduated withdrawal from Iraq could also tempt a terrorist strike.
The Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum meeting in September, temptingly coinciding with an anniversary of 9/11, could also provide an even more international platform for a terrorist attack.
More people across the globe will take note of a gathering of world leaders, including the US President, at the just World Heritage-listed Sydney Opera House, than of the Australian federal election.
Of course, a terrorist attack here or in Iraq could have the opposite effect on both national leaders, a risk terrorists would assess as they planned their campaign. In a way, as much as we may not like to think it, terrorists are also politicians, who weigh political risks.
The arrest in Brisbane may not be linked to any imminent attack in Australia but any future attack will require much groundwork and reconnaissance. We may have dodged a bullet yesterday. The point here, though, is that Australia's political and media value as a terrorist target will increase later this year at about the time of the APEC summit in Sydney and the federal election. At that time, there will be good reason for Australian authorities to revise the present medium threat level.
Gregory Pemberton, author of All the Way: Australia's Road to Vietnam, is manager of postgraduate programs at the Centre for Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism at Macquarie University in Sydney.
australian
* With a federal election due later this year, Australia could find itself in the same position as Britain: seen as ripe by terrorists to be sent a violent political message
* July 04, 2007
AUSTRALIA should be ready for a higher risk of terrorist attack later this year following the weekend car-bomb attacks executed or defeated in Britain, the detaining of two men in Brisbane yesterday and issuing of search warrants following advice from Scotland Yard.
Although Britain's terrorist alert was elevated to critical, Attorney-General Philip Ruddock stated on Saturday following the news from Britain that Australia's terrorism alert level would remain unchanged at medium. This was reaffirmed yesterday by Ruddock and Australian Federal Police commissioner Mick Keelty. This may have to change before the year ends.
Australian authorities have not yet made a link between the Brisbane arrests and the attacks in Britain. But the timing of events, the acknowledged British source of advice and the fact one of the Brisbane men arrested, Mohammed Haneef, was a registrar at Gold Coast Hospital in Southport, so a doctor, who had trained in India before coming to Australia from northern England, suggest a direct connection.
British authorities have said that as many as six of the eight men arrested so far in connection with the attempted attacks in London and Glasgow were doctors with links to British hospitals including in Scotland. Although the exact motive of the attacks has not been established publicly, it seems certain they were terrorist attacks calculated to send a message to new British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Attacking Glasgow's airport, a considerably lower profile though softer security target than Heathrow, reinforces the suspicion that the message was to Brown, who is a Scot, possibly to reconsider his support for the Iraq policies of his predecessor, an issue on which there is evidence of some ambivalence on his part.
Washington sources have already reported unease in the Bush administration over Brown's appointment of ministers critical of the US and the Iraq war, including Mark Malloch-Brown to a senior position at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and David Miliband as Foreign Secretary, plus John Denham, who resigned from government over the war, and Harriet Harman, Labour's new deputy leader.
British counter-terrorist agencies were reported yesterday as having warned the British Government in April of a renewed terrorist campaign to coincide with the handover of prime ministerial power to Brown by Tony Blair.
Terrorists read the political news, too. They may not be planning to vote but that does not mean they do not hope to influence policies, even elections, using violence rather than the ballot box.
Political violence, which includes terrorism, is rarely random. Political violence is part of political communication including bargaining. The aim of the violence is to influence the other parties in the process into accepting a certain position.
Terrorism, like war, is 19th-century Prussian military thinker Karl von Clausewitz's "continuation of politics by other means".
Take the Tet Offensive by the National Liberation Front in Vietnam in February 1968. It was more a political message to the American people and politicians than a military campaign. It succeeded brilliantly.
US president Lyndon B. Johnson announced he would not seek re-election and indicated a new willingness to seek a negotiated settlement in Vietnam. His push for a halt to the bombing of North Vietnam was to facilitate the election of Democrat Hubert Humphrey, something Hanoi also wanted to see realised.
When Republican Richard Nixon defeated the "peace candidate" Humphrey in the November election, he was confronted with a second military offensive, in February 1969, less than a month after taking office, to send the message he should continue Johnson's policies and disengage from Vietnam.
With a federal election due later this year, Australia could find itself in the same position as Britain does now, seen as ripe by terrorists to be sent a violent message.
Were Kevin Rudd to win, terrorists could be keen to send a message to the new leader of another member of the coalition of the willing to rethink Australia's policies in Iraq and Afghanistan if not elsewhere as well.
Rudd has already indicated he would withdraw all Australian combat troops from Iraq if elected.
A punishing terrorist attack in Australia linked to the Iraq commitment before the election might strengthen his commitment.
Indeed, more worryingly, terrorists may calculate the political message may be stronger if delivered against our troops in Iraq or Afghanistan.
A likely Rudd victory may not be the only grounds for fearing such an attack. The likelihood that Prime Minister John Howard may make a pre-election decision on beginning a graduated withdrawal from Iraq could also tempt a terrorist strike.
The Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum meeting in September, temptingly coinciding with an anniversary of 9/11, could also provide an even more international platform for a terrorist attack.
More people across the globe will take note of a gathering of world leaders, including the US President, at the just World Heritage-listed Sydney Opera House, than of the Australian federal election.
Of course, a terrorist attack here or in Iraq could have the opposite effect on both national leaders, a risk terrorists would assess as they planned their campaign. In a way, as much as we may not like to think it, terrorists are also politicians, who weigh political risks.
The arrest in Brisbane may not be linked to any imminent attack in Australia but any future attack will require much groundwork and reconnaissance. We may have dodged a bullet yesterday. The point here, though, is that Australia's political and media value as a terrorist target will increase later this year at about the time of the APEC summit in Sydney and the federal election. At that time, there will be good reason for Australian authorities to revise the present medium threat level.
Gregory Pemberton, author of All the Way: Australia's Road to Vietnam, is manager of postgraduate programs at the Centre for Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism at Macquarie University in Sydney.
australian