Post by buzz on May 15, 2006 6:23:52 GMT -5
As each day passes, the possibility of a military conflict with Iran draws
closer. Are we about the see a war with Iran? What will be the outcome, and
how will this affect the US and its allies.
Let’s look at the situation as in stands at present.
The USA, after the disastrous and unnecessary invasion of Iraq, is now faced
with a real threat to its national security, not the imagined threat Saddam
Hussein was alleged to be. Partly as a result of the Iraqi invasion, the
USA now no longer has the economic and military resources to consider a land
invasion and occupation of Iran as it did with Iraq. More importantly, the
lack of political support for such an invasion within the USA would make
this difficult to mount a land invasion at this time. To invade Iran would
mean bringing back conscription and placing an unsustainable pressure on the
US budget.
Iraq has become America’s Achilles’ heal. Most informed commentators now
acknowledge that there is little chance America achieving victory in Iraq.
Public opinion in the US has turned against the occupation of Iraq, and with
little prospects of victory being achieved; there is a growing demands for a
US withdrawal. Yet for America and Britain to withdraw from Iraq would have
disastrous consequences to America’s influence in the Middle East. It would
allow Iran to gain defacto control of Iraq, and threaten the control of
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. It would leave Iran in control of Middle
East oil.
Sadly, the American people have turned against the Bush administration and
continuing the war in Iraq. While over 80% of Americans supported the
invasion, less than 30% now support the war. Current domestic problems
within the Bush Administration are paralyzing its ability to provide any
effective leadership in resolving the challenge from Iran. What many
Americans fail to realize that there is no easy option but to continue the
occupation of Iraq – withdrawal would play right into Iran’s hands, allowing
it to gain a strategic position to gain control of the Persian Gulf. Yet
the longer America has to stay in Iraq, the worse the situation will become.
The American withdrawal from Iraq would allow Iran to gain control of Middle
East oil and be in a position to blackmail the West into supporting its goal
of destroying Israel. This is the real threat to Israel and the West – not
Iran having nuclear weapons. While the Sunnis and Shiites are religious
rivals, they are both Muslim and share common goal of having Jerusalem
become a Muslim city.
This time Europe and America are united in their opposition to Iran
developing its own nuclear capacity through its enrichment of uranium.
Unlike the US rhetoric and propaganda leading up to the invasion of Iraq,
the Bush administration has been much more cautious on how America will
respond to the Iranian threat. There are a number of reasons for this, some
of which are:
America does not wish to become bogged down in another land war in the
Middle East – its military is stretched coping with Afghanistan and Iraq.
Its economy is also stretched, with record budget and current account
deficits, and increasingly depended on attracting overseas capital to meet
the short-fall.
The threat to the global economy if the supply of oil through the Persian
Gulf was cut off, which is a real possibility if Iran is invaded.
An international lack of confidence in the US dollar if the US invades Iran.
Both China and Russia see no benefit to their global strategic interests in
supporting a UN Security Council resolution to impose a trade embargo
against Iran. China, India and Japan are all dependent on oil from Iran and
an embargo would not be in their interests. Russia is using the opportunity
of the conflict to gain strategic influence in the Middle East and has can
see no interest in supporting the West through the UN. Europe and America
must confront the challenge from Iran alone.
The real threat of Iran to the West is the danger of loosing control of the
Persian Gulf, which for the last 100 years has been controlled by the
Anglo/American alliance. Without control of the Persian Gulf would mean
loosing control of the Middle East oil to other competing powers. China,
Japan and India will put their own strategic interests ahead of supporting
those of America and Britain. As the global supply of oil declines, and
demand increases, alliances will be formed out of economic necessity, not
previous loyalties to any one nation.
Russia is increasingly gaining economic strength through its new oil wealth,
and would like to see the role of the US dollar has the currency for
financing the international oil market replaced with an alternative reserve
currency, and have the ruble become fully convertible. Iran, which has been
under a US trade embargo for the last 20 years, has only been able to accept
Euros for the payment of its oil for sometime. With the steady decline in
the value of the US dollar, other oil producing nations are likely to switch
to the Euro for oil for their oil purchases, similar to Iran, including
Russia. This would bring about the demise of the $US.
Iran is fully aware of America’s weaknesses, and has decided to call America’s
bluff. Not only has it challenged the US on its right to develop its own
nuclear facilities, it has also publicly declared that Israel must be wiped
off the map. If the USA allows the challenge to go without response, it
will undermine it authority not only in the Middle East, but in the entire
would. Yet there is little the US can do, except use nuclear weapons to
destroy Iran’s nuclear production facilities
